Here is a nice post on Disruptive Innovation and Customer Development in Healthcare…
http://personalmedicine.posterous.com/natalie-hodge-md-faap-innovation-in-primary-c-2

Natalie Hodge MD FAAP
http://www.personalmedicine.com

If you truly believe the Kurzweil time path (I do not), then we will essentially be living in virtual reality by 2029, about 20 years from now, we will be able to upload our minds into computers in 25 years and so on (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2020). In this world, money has no value, resources are infinite etc..

I don’t think this is likely to happen for the following reasons:

1. many such predictions have been completely wrong in the past. When I was a grad student at Stanford (25 years ago), people were making similar claims about artificial intelligence. Thinking computers are still just as far off as in 1985.

2. while it is conceivable that *some* people might enjoy this technological level by 2029, *most* will not. Slums in India, extreme poverty in Africa, and illiteracy and racism in the US — just to name a few examples — are not going away. The infrastructure of London is 150 years old. It cannot and will not be replaced in 30 years. Londoners will still take the tube in 2029. New Yorkers will still take the subway. We will still be running out of room in major cities — and people will be living in substandard conditions — regardless of the new Tesla, bioengineering, nanotechnology, or a new type of social networking.

3. as you point out, we are rapidly destroying our own ecosystem. Technology can’t save us here. We need behavior modification, legal and political will to change (very difficult) — but chances are these wont happen. With a hotter, more inhospitable world, I wonder if all we can expect from technology is to maintain the status quo.

The choice between gold and technology is not really a correct one. Its gold versus paper currencies and debt. As a friend of mine points out

“equity investments in great technologies will create great fortunes. gold is a form of money which cannot be easily manipulated by governments, and certainly cant be printed. it is a STORE OF VALUE. it is not an equity, and certainly has zero growth potential. it also has zero offsetting liability, and will be around long after Tesla is no longer footnote in the history books.”

This was most dramatically illustrated in the biblical story of Moses, when his followers created a golden calf to worship when they were frightened of the profoud changes in their lives and wantedto to return to another time in their lives, even if it meant a primitive bondage to the rulers of Egypt. The golden calf is an important and apt metaphor for current gold bug investors.

There is certainly plenty of reasons to be optimistic about innovation trumping worries about our current economic situation. I might even hazard to suggest that the recession is itself a driver of the innovation and rapid growth of the future. It’s almost as if we need an economic downturn to help change people’s viewpoints and behaviors enough to accept new ideas, new products and new markets. Recessions are the nursery of the future.

General Electric created entire industries that didn’t exist before – even though it started during the financial panic of 1873. Hewlett-Packard started during the great depression, but created technology that helped to win wars and build entire industries. During a recession in the late fifties, Jim Henson transformed puppetry and in the process created a massive global entertainment platform while Hyatt Hotels began to build a global portfolio of hotels. Microsoft and Apple were started during a time (the 1970′s) when multiple recessions had convinced most experts that American business was no longer able to grow. Fortunately, those experts were wrong – in great part, thanks to the innovations of personal computers and the Internet. Apple is growing by leaps and bounds during the worst recession since the 1930′s.

There are many reasons for a recession to happen, but whenever an economy is in one, the rules for success change dramatically. Capital becomes scarce, raw materials unreliable, customers reluctant to buy. What was easy before suddenly becomes more complicated. Products that everyone had to have at any price before, suddenly lose their value. But as long as there are still people living their lives, there are ways to create something they need, want and will pay for – it just might be a little different than it was before.

As an example, in 2008, innovative on-line retailer Amazon had a 28% increase in net income. At the same time, retailers that did not innovate such as Circuit City faced diminished market share, lost sales and even bankruptcy.

Companies that perceive and understand the new rules in a recession are able to innovate and thrive, while those that continue as they did before risk losing everything. Buying gold may be the most dangerous investment one could make, somewhat akin to buying Circuit City Stock in 2007. During a recession, the most dangerous strategy is to avoid innovation.

It’s times like these that the imperative for every investor, every leader, every manager must be to challenge all assumptions from the past. Every process, every service, every product must be looked at from a fresh perspective – and changed to fit the new reality.

It is what i do actually, i invest in aladin-consulting.com that is going to revolve the online worldwide Real Estate market.

Thomas – you’re so right to point out that gold’s value is rooted in history. It doesn’t innately create any value (through innovation).

Innovation creates new value and smart investors can make bets on the value created by startups and the like.

Great post.

Check out Ray’s prediction for the future

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near